As a data scientist who once modeled NBA clutch shots in Chicago, I never expected to apply regression trees to a soccer draw—but here it is: Waldaredda and Avai played out a 1-1 stalemate that felt more like a Bayesian puzzle than a match. This wasn’t luck. It was entropy dressed in cleats. I’ll walk you through the silent tension of 76 minutes, where every pass had a probability weight—and the real story wasn’t on the scoreboard.