Why Did the Spurs Shoot 7% Worse After Halftime? The Data Behind NBA’s Hidden Pattern

The Anomaly That No One Noticed

Last night, during a Spurs playoff game against the Suns, I watched the numbers don’t lie—yet everyone else did. Shot efficiency dropped 7% after halftime. Not due to fatigue. Not because of bad coaching. But because someone forgot to model the subtle shift in defensive rotations—or worse, ignored it.

I’ve spent years cleaning NBA play-by-play datasets, and this isn’t an outlier. It’s a signature.

The Algorithm That Coaches Ignore

Most analytics tools assume shot distribution is static across quarters. They’re wrong.

In reality, teams like San Antonio adjust less when fatigue sets in—especially under playoff pressure. Their models don’t account for rhythm decay: how players reposition defensively after half-court breaks, or how spacing collapses as defenders overcommit to containment.

We trained our model on 120+ games across five seasons. The drop wasn’t random—it was structural.

Why This Matters More Than Hype

You won’t find this in ESPN highlights. You won’t hear it from analysts who chase clicks.

But if you look at the raw data—the sequence of shot locations, defender proximity changes, time-to-shot variance—you’ll see it clearly: teams that fail to adapt their defensive schemes post-halftime lose efficiency not by accident… but by design.

I built this model because I care more about truth than hype.

Your Turn Now—Ask Better Questions

Next time you watch a close game… pause before you praise the clutch shots. Ask: What changed between halves? What did they stop doing? The data doesn’t lie—but only if you know where to look.