Why Messi’s High Ratings Don’t Lie (And Why Some Critics Are Missing the Point)

The Myth of the “Overrated” Number

I’ve spent years building models that predict player value using real-time data—first in the NBA, now in football analytics. So when someone claims Messi’s rating is inflated because he “loses possession,” I don’t just roll my eyes—I run the numbers.

The argument goes like this: “He gets points for dangerous passes and dribbles, but no penalty for mistakes.” That sounds logical on paper… until you realize it’s built on a misunderstanding of what ‘rating’ actually measures.

Stats Aren’t Simple; They’re Systems

In football analytics, ratings like those from Opta or WhoScored aren’t arbitrary scores—they’re weighted systems. Every action is evaluated based on context: location, game state, defensive pressure.

For instance:

• A pass in the final third? High value.
• A dribble under pressure? Even higher reward.
• But a failed attempt outside the box? Minimal cost.

This isn’t bias—it’s math. And Messi excels at high-leverage actions more than any player alive.

The Di María Clip: A Case Study in Misreading Context

That viral video shows Di María outplaying Messi 3–0 in one match—but only one side of the story was shown. It’s tempting to think: “See? He’s overrated!”

But here’s what wasn’t captured:

• How much time did Messi play?
• Was he playing behind a weak midfield?
• What was his actual contribution to chances created?
• Did he carry an underperforming team?

Data doesn’t lie—but selective editing does.

The Real Metric: Impact Over Touches

Let me be clear: I’m not defending every decision Messi makes. He does make mistakes—just like anyone else. But his net impact is what matters.

calculate this: The average top-tier attacking midfielder creates ~1.2 chance-generating actions per 90 minutes. Messi? Around 2.8—not just double, but qualitatively different. His ability to draw defenders while remaining calm under pressure transforms space into opportunity—even when he doesn’t complete every touch.

It’s not about how many times you keep the ball; it’s about how often you change the game with it.

Data Doesn’t Replace Emotion—It Reframes It

I get it—the romance of seeing a genius dance through defenders feels more real than spreadsheets. And yes, I secretly love those moments too as someone who grew up watching Maradona flickers on VHS tapes.

But emotion shouldn’t override evidence when we talk about performance. Being great isn’t just flair—it’s consistency across metrics that matter: efficiency, influence, durability—and above all, results under pressure.

clicks aren’t wins; ratings aren’t ego trips. They’re signals—like radar echoes showing where real value lies.

tell me: would you rather have a flashy player who looks good for 15 minutes—or someone whose presence turns games even when they don’t touch the ball? The data says Messi wins both debates.