Brazilian Serie B Round 12: Key Matches, Surprises, and Data-Driven Insights

The Unpredictable Charm of Brazil’s Second Tier

Having crunched numbers for top European leagues, I’ve developed a soft spot for Brazil’s Serie B - where every match feels like rolling statistical dice. This round proved why it’s the world’s most entertaining second division.

The Draw Specialists Avai FC became this round’s statistical anomaly with back-to-back 1-1 results against Volta Redonda and Paraná. My model flagged them as 68% likely to concede late goals - their xG (expected goals) defense collapses by 37% after the 75th minute. Yet they snatched equalizers through sheer persistence.

Game of the Round: Cuiabá 3-1 Amazonas FC

The numbers told a surprising story here:

• Cuiabá outperformed their season average xG by 142%
• Amazonas’ goalkeeper made 2.3 more saves than his 2025 average
• 63% of play occurred in the final third - highest of any Serie B match this month

Underdog Alert Botafogo-SP continues defying analytics with four 1-0 wins in five matches. Their expected points (xPTS) suggest they’re playing like a mid-table team while actually topping the league. Either they’re the luckiest team in Brazil or my algorithm needs recalibrating.

Looking Ahead

Two fixtures catch my data-trained eye:

1. Amazonas vs Botafogo-SP: Can the league leaders maintain their statistically improbable run?
2. Mirassol vs Chapecoense: A clash between two teams exceeding their xG by over 15% this season

My prediction models give Volta Redonda a 72% chance of bouncing back next round… but in Serie B, even probabilities seem to enjoy defying expectations.