Serie B Matchday 12: The Numbers Never Lie

When Draws Tell More Than Wins

The 1-1 stalemate between Volta Redonda and Avaí might look mundane on paper, but our xG models tell a different story. Avaí underperformed their 1.85 xG by nearly 50% - statistically, they should’ve walked away with three points. Their finishing was as precise as my attempts at coding before coffee.

The Late Show Specialists

Botafogo-SP’s 1-0 win over Chapecoense followed a pattern we’ve tracked all season:

• 78% of their goals come after the 70th minute
• Average xG spikes by 32% in final quarters Their coach clearly understands conditional probability better than most hedge fund managers.

Paraná’s Defensive Masterclass

That 2-1 win against Avaí? Textbook defensive organization:

Their center-back pairing moved in sync like perfectly correlated variables.

Upcoming Fixtures to Watch

Our Monte Carlo simulations suggest:

• 63% probability of Vila Nova continuing their clean sheet streak
• 81% chance the Goiás vs Minas Gerais clash produces over 2.5 goals

The numbers don’t predict miracles - just ask Chapecoense fans - but they’re rarely wrong about trends.