Brazilian Serie B Round 12: Where Expected Goals Meet Unexpected Drama

The Promotion Picture Gets Murkier

Another fascinating round in Brazil’s second tier saw the league table compress like a poorly organized Excel spreadsheet. With 11 of 20 teams separated by just 5 points, my machine learning models are getting more exercise than a goalkeeper during a training drill.

Key Results That Mattered:

• Botafogo-SP 1-0 Chapecoense: The league leaders ground out another result while generating just 0.7 xG. Their defense (best in the league at 0.8 goals conceded per game) continues to bail out an attack that creates chances about as effectively as I create small talk at networking events.
• Avaí’s Jekyll & Hyde Week: Drew 1-1 with Volta Redonda before collapsing 4-0 to Atlético Mineiro. Their center-back pairing averaged a match rating of 5.8 - roughly equivalent to defending while wearing roller skates.

The Data Tells The Story

Here’s what caught my algorithm’s attention:

The numbers suggest either brilliant finishing or terrible goalkeeping - and having watched the footage, I’m leaning toward the latter in most cases.

What Comes Next?

Looking ahead to Round 13, keep an eye on:

1. Amazonas FC vs Botafogo-SP: Can the league leaders break down Amazonas’ compact 5-3-2? My model gives them just a 43% chance of scoring first.
2. Remo’s Away Form: They’ve taken just 1 point from their last 15 possible on the road - a statistic so bad it makes Brexit negotiations look competently managed.
3. The Relegation Dogfight: With Brasil de Pelotas and Londrina both improving, we might see some unexpected casualties in the drop zone.

As always in Serie B, expect the unexpected. Just don’t expect the refereeing decisions to make sense.