As a data analyst who lives by numbers, not narratives, I watched CalveresU20 and Santa Cruz AlceU20 fight to a 1-1 stalemate—not a failure, but a statistical fingerprint. Using Python models and Bayes-based win probability, I traced how positional defense and low shot efficiency killed momentum. This isn't about emotion—it’s about expected goals x defensive spacing. Here’s what the data didn’t say out loud.