As a data-driven sports analyst with a PhD in computational statistics, I’ve dissected the numbers behind Japan vs China’s 2025 East Asian Cup semifinal. Japan’s 67% win rate and structured 4-3-3 system contrast sharply with China’s defensive 5-4-1 shape and youth-heavy roster. Historical dominance since 2005 is real—but so is the 0-0 draw in 2022. This isn’t about hype. It’s about patterns, pressure responses, and predictive probabilities—calculated, not conjectured.